On Al Jazeera English, Hiram College professor Jason Johnson discusses the role of young voters in the 2014 midterm elections.
young voters
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Jason Johnson discusses Hiram College Poll of Young Voters with Japan’s Largest Daily Newspaper
Hiram College Professor Jason Johnson was interviewed by Japan’s largest daily newspaper, Yomiuri Shimbun. Dr. Johnson discussed the Listening to Young Voters poll conducted by the Garfield Institute of Public Leadership.
A translation of the Yomiuri Shimbun article follows below:
Tug-of-war of votes from the young people in swing states
“Obama fever” fade in the job shortage
“In the last presidential election, young people had the illusion that Mr. Obama have a magic stick. But now, the enthusiasm is gone,” Jason Johnson, professor of Hiram College in Ohio said.
The professor conducted a poll with 600 young voters in June. He asked voters at the age of 18-29 in the United States, “If the election were held today, who would you vote for?” The results show “President Obama” 50%, Mr. Mitt Romney to be the Republican candidate 37%. Although Obama is the dominant Indeed, in the presidential election of 2008, according to exit polls, 66% of young people voted for Obama. Republican candidate John McCain had 32 percent.
Young voters once supported Obama. But now because they will be expected to suffer from the scarcity of jobs, a part of young people began to give up Mr. Obama.
However, “move away from Obama” does not mean “support for Mr. Romney.” Both sides are playing a tug-of-war.
Mr. Obama is planing to reduce the burden of student loans for young people suffering from heavy tuition. He put in place a policy that allows young people to be able to stay on the health insurance of their parents until age 26. In April, he said “Actually, I also had to repay my student loan until eight years ago.” He wants to be perceived as having a good understanding of the struggles of youth.
Mr. Romney is also strengthening his appeal to young voters. He said “the Obama administration made the economy stagnant and did not put work to youth. We will increase the work and turn around the economy.”
The reason why both sides focus on the young people? There are also circumstances in swing states, such as Virginia and North Carolina. There is a growing presence of young people in battleground states that will affect the outcome of the election.
Virginia, adjacent to Washington, DC, is in relatively good economic condition compared to the rest of the country, with young people flowing in from other states to the northern part of the state. In North Carolina, universities, research institutes and leading companies gather around the “Research Triangle Park”, and in recent years, many young people live in the area.
Professor Johnson pointed out that “In these states, whoever gets support from young votes would win. In the last election, Obama also won in Virginia thanks to young people.”
Then the pie charts we included:
Fig. 1: If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
Fig. 2: Who do you believe has the ability to strengthen the economy and create jobs?
Fig. 3: Trend of young people voting in the presidential election 2008
Photo: Supporters gathered to rally of U.S. President Barack Obama In Denver, Colorado. A Trend of young people in the swing states have been attracting attention. (8 Aug, Reuters)
Cleveland Plain Dealer: Jason Johnson discusses Hiram College Listening to Young Voters Poll
The Garfield Institute for Public Leadership at Hiram College released its most recent poll in its ongoing “Listening to Young Voters” initiative. The poll found President Barack Obama leading former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 50 to 37 percent among young voters ages 18 to 29 years old.
Hiram College professor Jason Johnson discussed the poll with the Cleveland Plain Dealer for the story “Young voters still favor President Obama, but support has eroded, poll finds“:
Political Scientist Jason Johnson, who heads the college’s year-long “Listening to Young Voters” project, says young voters are disappointed that Obama hasn’t solved nation’s problems over the past four years, but aren’t convinced that Romney will do any better.
He anticipates the lack of enthusiasm will depress that group’s high voter participation from 2008. The 22 million young voters who showed up at the polls that year represented the third highest turnout in that demographic since 1972, when the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18, a Tufts University analysis found.
“Young people are not going to turn out with the same level of enthusiasm as they did in 2008,” says Johnson, whose poll of 600 registered voters conducted between June 5 and 12 had a 4 percent margin of error. “When they see these two options side by side, they are not thrilled.”
Hiram College Garfield Institute Poll: If Obama is Winning the Economic Argument, Why is Romney So Close?
Candidate Barack Obama was so popular during the 2008 presidential election that people were fainting at his speeches, he was more popular that David Hasselhoff when he gave a speech in Germany, and pictures of him ripping open his shirt with a red, white and blue “O” on his chest was seen as inspiring not ironic.
Nowhere was this feverish popularity more evident than in his support amongst young and first time voters, many of whom believed that an Obama presidency would change Washington, change America and send the nation off into a bright new future.
But, it’s amazing how a little recession will take the shine off a super-hero turned president. According to the newly released Garfield Institute Young Voter’s Survey Obama may be winning the overall economic argument – but his young supporters are increasingly skeptical.
The Garfield Institute for Public Leadership is a research arm of Hiram College, who funded the survey and plans on conducting at least one more young voter survey before the election. While there are various colleges around the country that conduct polls during election years, from Marist to Quinnipiac, the Hiram College survey is unique in its dogged focus on millennial voters (18-30).
Millennial voters were seen as a key to Obama’s voting strength in 2008, not so much because of their turnout (2008 was the third highest turnout of young voters in the last 40 years), but because they formed an amazing volunteer army for Obama the candidate. However, the recession has hit this group of voters in challenging ways and their faith in Obama or either party for that matter on major economic issues is starting to waver.
When it comes to questions like “Best Understands the Problems of People Under 30” and “Will make education affordable” Obama is running laps around Mitt Romney, and has been since the first Young Voter’s Survey in January 2012.
However, in the two areas where Mitt Romney does beat out the president, “Making American competitive with other countries” and “Lowering the Budget deficit” Mitt Romney is the strong choice of young voters. Overall this seems to bode well for the president although a deeper look into the numbers does provide some interesting revelations.
Independent voters are much more likely to side with Romney on the issues where he is strongest and are somewhat lukewarm with Obama on his ability to truly turn this economy around. What’s worse though is that when asked which candidate has a better chance of strengthening the economy and creating more jobs Romney beats Obama 48% to 44% amongst DEMOCRATIC voters.
To the degree that young voters will vote their pocketbooks this fall, Obama has some serious ground to make up if he hopes to stay in the White House.
Over the coming week we will be providing more analysis from the Garfield Institute Young Voter’s Survey. To see the results in their entirety click on the Hiram College Garfield Institute website or see below:
This article originally appeared online at Politic365.com.
