On AM Joy with Joy Reid, MSNBC Contributor Jason Johnson discussed the outcomes of the special Congressional elections in South Carolina and Georgia with Jimmy Williams and Tara Dowdell.
Professor of Political Science. Politics Editor for The Root. Latest Book: Political Consultants and Campaigns: One Day to Sell
On AM Joy with Joy Reid, MSNBC Contributor Jason Johnson discussed the outcomes of the special Congressional elections in South Carolina and Georgia with Jimmy Williams and Tara Dowdell.
I was on my way to the Jon Ossoff watch party at a fancy Westin in North Atlanta when I got a call from a good colleague of mine. Somewhere between a black millennial and Gen Xer, he was someone who’d worked on campaigns in Georgia and had a pretty good feel for what was going on throughout Atlanta and the surrounding suburbs.
“That white boy ’bout to lose,” was the first thing he said.
At first I was kind of surprised: Most polls showed the Georgia special election to be close, with Democrat Ossoff performing reasonably well and sometimes even leading Republican Karen Handel. It was the most expensive congressional race in history, and I knew several Republicans who told me privately that Ossoff was going to pull off the upset.
However, with a few days on the ground and knowing the district, I expected Ossoff to lose in a close race, but hearing that sentiment from a campaign insider was unexpected. Yet it became a resounding theme, especially among the African-American political consultants and campaign insiders I spoke to. No matter what happened or how much money was spent, the racial dynamics of Georgia weren’t going to let a Democrat win in a red district.
Democratic armchair quarterbacks were throwing pretzels long before Ossoff’s 48 percent-to-52 percent loss to Handel was called on the cable news networks: The Democratic Party lacks a message; Jon Ossoff spent too much time talking about Trump; Jon Ossoff spent too little time talking about Trump; Jon Ossoff shoulda just kicked the field goal. Everyone seemed to know exactly what Atlanta Democrats should have done.
The truth is, the Republican Party had a 9 percent advantage in voter registration in the Georgia 6th. Hardworking local organizations got more than 129,000 people to early-vote, and more than 50,000 new voters registered between the April primary and the special election in June. But gerrymandering is a serious drug.
The Georgia 6th was drawn in a way to guarantee that a ham sandwich, a wet tablecloth, Team Rocket or a Margo Martindale clone will win any race so long as they have an “R” by their name. There was no “message” from Ossoff on how he was going to turn college-educated Republicans into Democratic special election voters. There is no cheat code to make up a 9 percent registration deficit that either Bernie Sanders, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton or JFK could have come up with to change the election results. Privately, most Republicans in Atlanta will acknowledge that Ossoff ran about as flawless a campaign as possible, given the circumstances, but he couldn’t overcome the structure of the district.
The Georgia special election demonstrates the limitations of the Democratic Party right now, as well as the weakness of the Republicans even in what are supposed to be safe districts. Republicans just spent $23 million to keep a congressional district that no Democrat has won in 40 years. That’s like McDonald’s spending millions to remind us they still sell hamburgers. If what you’re selling is any good, you shouldn’t have to spend that much to remind us.
However, while some outside the district will second-guess and decry what happened in the race as some larger indictment of the Democratic Party, most African-American consultants on the ground were not surprised. When it came to the Georgia 6th special election, black folks knew that, like Airbnb rates and The Bachelorette, the fix was in.
“White people gonna white.”
“I know my racist neighbors.”
“Ossoff left 10,000 black voters out there.”
In the South—even the “educated” suburban South of a teeming multicultural metropolis like Atlanta—racial dynamics and party dynamics overlap in inescapable ways. White people generally don’t vote for the Democratic Party in Georgia, or any other Southern state. The idea that a coalition of educated suburban whites would actually team up with black voters to send a message to Donald Trump from Georgia was a fantasy created by the blue screen and CGI of outside Democratic analysts who want a happy ending to the Trump narrative in eight months.
Earlier in the week, a middle-aged white woman in a heavily pro-Ossoff precinct called the police on me for simply reporting on a group of African-American canvassers in her neighborhood. Canvassers were threatened and spat on across the 6th District. The Democratic Party’s most reliable base of voters, African Americans remain the primary targets of voter intimidation, suppression and policy abuse, but the Democrats continue to spend millions of dollars chasing after mythical “moderate” Republicans and soccer moms.
This is not to suggest that African-American turnout alone would have won the Georgia 6th for the Democrats, but they spent about $25 million in that race. For that much money, they could’ve gotten one season out of LeBron James, and I’m pretty sure that’s equal to a 20 percent increase in black turnout.
Many consultants told me that the Ossoff campaign left much of the black-turnout work to outside groups and third parties, which is status quo in a regular election, but that’s not the game-changing strategy you need in the most expensive congressional race in American history.
If there’s any doubt about the value of tapping into the Southern black Democratic vote, just look at what happened six hours away in the South Carolina 5th District special election, which nobody was paying any attention to. There, quietly, the Democratic Party spent only $250,000 but tested out some experimental get-out-the-vote strategies for getting out the African-American vote.
Look what happened:
Archie Parnell increased black votes and made inroads with whites, That’s why it was close. That’s the Southern Democrat Holy Grail. #SC05
— Wyeth Ruthven (@wyethwire) June 21, 2017
So this is interesting:
Dem turnout in majority-minority precincts increased +115% from primary to special election in #SC05— Wyeth Ruthven (@wyethwire) June 21, 2017
Democrat Archie Parnell lost to Republican Ralph Norman by a mere 4 percentage points, 51 to 47 percent, in a district that went for Trump by 20 percentage points in November. What was the difference? Consistent and creative African-American turnout efforts by the Democratic candidate throughout the entire campaign led to—wait for it—incredible jumps in turnout! Politics can be a simple game when you actually target your own voters instead of someone else’s.
At the end of the night, when all networks had declared that Jon Ossoff lost the Georgia 6th congressional race, the watch-party room was still jubilant. Black, white, Asian, Latino; the room was the epitome of Atlanta in 2017, if not specifically Georgia’s 6th District. People were cheering, dancing and drinking long into the night. I only saw two people crying; everyone else was dancing to suburban hip-hop (lots of Usher and radio-edited T.I.; this is Atlanta, after all).
Apparently they missed the message from national Democrats that they were a bunch of failures. But maybe, just like the black consultants I talked to all throughout the day, the Ossoff revelers knew something that nobody else did. Ossoff’s supporters knew that they had raised millions of dollars and made the GOP sweat in places it never expected. African-American Democrats know that even amid the same old racial cleavages, the “City Too Busy to Hate” had made a smidgen of progress in spite of itself.
All along, people knew “That white boy ’bout to lose,” but at least this time, it looked as if he, and they, went down swinging.
This article originally appeared online at The Root.
On Deadline White House with Nicole Wallace, MSNBC Contributor Jason Johnson discussed the issues of the day with Bill Kristol of The Weekly Standard, Democratic strategist Lis Smith, and Megan Murphy of Bloomberg BusinessWeek.
On President Trump’s use of Twitter and foreign policy
On the Senate bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act
On calls for Nancy Pelosi to step aside as House Democratic Leader
On President Trump’s rally in Cedar Rapids, Iowa
On All in with Chris Hayes, MSNBC Contributor Jason Johnson discusses the special election in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel.
“May I speak with Corbin, please?’ I said in my best “Not your neighborhood” smile.
A middle-aged white woman came to the door, dressed in a salmon-colored workout top and pants. She had the confused look of a woman used to leaving her front door open and nobody knocking.
“There’s no Corbin here,” she said.
“Gotcha, thanks,” I said with my best dual-consciousness smile, double-checked the address and then went back to my car, in the sweltering heat, wondering how the heck I used to do this for a living. It was 90 zillion degrees.
This was Dunwoody, an Atlanta suburb located in the southern tip of Georgia’s 6th District, and I was there looking for Corbin Spencer, the field director for the New Georgia Project. The Georgia 6th special election Tuesday has become a proxy election for every organization, party and political leader on the right and the left as each side seeks to both downplay and prop up the significance of the election.
However, instead of following Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff’s campaign or even Republican candidate Karen Handel, I decided to follow the New Georgia Project, a nonprofit, nonpartisan “get out the vote” organization, to see how this race looked from the ground. What I discovered is that suburban Atlanta looks and operates a lot like America in general, with all of the intrinsic problems that come with it.
I was eventually greeted at my car by Corbin Spencer and Rodney, a canvasser, and we three African-American men began walking through the sprawling neighborhood of Dunwoody, talking about what it was like to be a part of the most important early election of the Trump era.
Spencer made it clear from the beginning that NGP had no partisan leaning in the race, that its goal was to turn out as many voters as possible and, in particular, to target minorities, young people and single women. Mind you, in Georgia, where Secretary of State Brian Kemp has made voter suppression and intimidation his modus operandi, simply having the audacity to sign up people to vote and getting them to the polls puts the New Georgia Project squarely in the “left-wing resistance” column by default.
Everyone in Georgia’s 6th District knows that the nation’s eyes are on them. The airwaves in Atlanta are bombarded with ads for Ossoff and Handel, and the candidates’ every action is magnified by national cable networks, then regurgitated back to the local news.
Since it’s America, the grotesque racial dynamics of American politics are on full display as well; the pro-Donald Trump PAC Great American Alliance has been running ads on the popular Michael Baisden radio show telling blacks to “sit this race out,” even using audio from President Barack Obama suggesting that voting for Democrats is “plantation politics.”
The classic Republican campaign stunt of using a black-sounding voice to confuse or suppress the black vote is a sign of just how seriously the GOP is taking this race. Unlike special elections in Kansas and Montana this year, the Georgia 6th is 13 percent African American and 12 percent Latino voters, and Hillary Clinton lost the district 48 to 47 percent to Trump last November.
Combine the district’s demographics with Trump’s cratering poll numbers, and a Democratic victory has moved from total impossibility to just within the realm of not totally crazy. The fact that the race is national, even in the eyes of local voters, is also something that has both parties on edge.
“Most people really want to talk about health care or police brutality,” says Rodney, an experienced campaigner who hails from Boston. Rodney is exactly what you’d expect an election canvasser in Atlanta to look like: a tall, lanky black man with stylish, short locs, various artistic bracelets on each wrist and a T-shirt covered in buttons promoting various forms of voter engagement.
“No one can really tell me why they’re voting for either of them [Handel or Ossoff]. But people are worried about their health care, they don’t know what Congress is doing, and a lot of people want change; they really want to see change in Washington,” he said.
“Do you think people here really care about police brutality, or is that just because you’re a tall black guy who’s encouraging them to vote?” I asked.
“Nah, I’ve seen the change,” Rodney said. “People bring this and health care up the most. They’re visibly upset about it. Especially with [Philandro] Castile last weekend? A lot of people are coming right out to say they’re voting Ossoff.”
As we rounded a corner, a group of Ossoff canvassers, maybe in their late teens or early 20s, were driving from door to door. I asked them how long they’d seen Karen Handel’s campaign or other groups in the area.
“Everyone is out here,” said a young white girl in the backseat. “People are literally sick of it; they know how important this election is.” She paused for a moment to recall everyone in the area. “Planned Parenthood, Ossoff campaign, everyone. Most people aren’t coordinated with each other. I don’t see a lot of Karen Handel people, though.”
As we started to turn back for our lunch break, I asked Spencer what the reception was like for canvassers. While you don’t get the sense that local voters are hostile, you can’t ever be surprised by suburban racial politics. Ossoff’s canvassers happened to be a hipster-looking white guy and girl, and a black girl who looked as if she’d just graduated from high school. Despite having just moved from Atlanta a few months ago, I was hypercognizant of how three black men, as opposed to that group, might be perceived in the area.
“Well, it’s been pretty good,” Spencer said. “I mean, a couple of people got yelled at. I’ve gotten calls threatening our canvassers at the office. Two groups of canvassers have had people throw things at them, but other than that, it’s been OK.”
It’s telling that having American citizens throw objects at someone just for asking if they plan to vote, not who they’re voting for, is considered normal. Then again, I knew where we were. As we walked to the corner back to where our cars were parked, there were two police cars there. The cops, two 30-something white guys, were prowling around my rental car and had stopped the Ossoff canvassers and were questioning them.
“Are you with them?” they asked me.
“No, I’m a journalist following the New Georgia Project,” I explained. “Those folks are working for Ossoff. They’re just canvassing the neighborhood.”
Then, as if on cue, I heard the sentence that every single black person in America has heard dozens of times in life, the sentence that means you have about a 50-50 chance of having a really bad day, or just suffering through annoyance and indignity.
“There’s been some robberies in the area. … And the lady at the house said that people were walking around the neighborhood,” one of the officers said.
I didn’t need to hear the rest. Obviously, the lady in the workout clothes whose door I had knocked on looking for Spencer had called the police on me, him and Rodney. Even though she knew full and well that there were canvassers walking through the area.
The police, doing their duty to acquiesce to the racial fears of suburban white women, were pulling over random cars searching for us, based on some ambiguous “robberies” in the area. Nonexistent robberies, I might add, since I checked. Fortunately, a mixture of police boredom and good luck allowed me to talk my way back to my car and head home, but not before being reminded of the sobering reality of the Georgia 6th election and what was at stake.
African Americans engaging in our constitutional right to participate in politics are still considered a threat in this country, whether from conservative forces, or random people in Anywheresville America. Let’s be honest—I have no idea who that woman was voting for or how Tuesday will play out, but I do know this: When faced with that kind of naked racism and aggression, one of the few resources we have is the ability (often under duress) to get ourselves to a polling station and vote.
No matter what happens with Karen Handel and Jon Ossoff on Tuesday, my only hope is that black voters’ voices are heard at the polls, if for no other reason than to fight back against everyone, local and national, who wants to keep us silent.
This article originally appeared online at The Root.
Dr. Jason Johnson is a professor, political analyst and public speaker. Fresh, unflappable, objective, he is known for his ability to break down stories with wit and candor. Johnson is the author the book Political Consultants and Campaigns: One Day to Sell, a tenured professor in the School of Global Journalism & Communication at Morgan State University in Baltimore, Maryland and Politics Editor at TheRoot.com. Dr. Johnson has an extensive public speaking and media background ranging from … [Read More...] about About Jason Johnson