Hiram College professor and HLN Contributor Jason Johnson discusses President Barack Obama’s interview with Barbara Walters about HealthCare.gov and the Obamacare website.
approval rating
HLN: Jason Johnson on President Barack Obama’s Falling Approval Rating
Hiram College Professor and HLN Contributor Jason Johnson discusses Barack Obama’s falling approval rating on Headline News Weekend Express with Natasha Curry.
Barack Obama Rising in the Polls: The Post-Thanksgiving Bounce
One of the best parts of being a political prognosticator is finding ways to back-track on predictions that you made with absolute certainty months and sometimes only weeks ago. Remember when Newt Gingrich was dead in the water? Analysts backtracked on that one so fast they’ll need new heels before the Iowa Caucuses. With that in mind – in the rare instance where you’re actually right in a prediction this early in the game – it is definitely worth crowing about.
So…Ahem…you know what’s coming.
A month ago I predicted that we would see a significant change in Obama’s approval numbers in the days and weeks after Thanksgiving. Why? Because Thanksgiving is America’s annual focus group. More than any other holiday at Thanksgiving, families get together, swap stories and get a better assessment of how the nation and the economy are going. Right before the Holiday I wrote at Politic365:
If you hear during Thanksgiving dinner how most of the family’s college kids actually have good job prospects this spring, then you’re going to have a much better view of the sitting president. If half the family couldn’t make it to Thanksgiving because your cousin still hasn’t found a job in the last 9 months, then you think the economy is still lousy. People don’t care about polls: they care about how their families are doing. What’s a 9% unemployment rate to you when everyone around the turkey table is gainfully employed or has been re-hired recently?
At the time it was apparent the economy was getting a little better, it was just going to take a few weeks for the information to sink in. And now it has. Reports have come out today showing that Obama has hit almost 50% approval in some polls and have come back to respectable levels after looking like the political walking dead just 3 months ago.
Notice also how these numbers approval numbers have trickled up a few weeks after we finally found out that the unemployment rate had dropped to its lowest rate in almost 2 years?
Simply put: People are getting back to work. They talked about it over turkey, took that news home and now they’re moving the needle in their community bases.
Now this by no means puts Obama in the safe zone for re-election – but it certainly speaks to his improved chances and of course my predictive prowess. The great thing about this is that it should totally make up for my Obama vs. Pawlenty in 2012 predictions I was making earlier this year.
This article originally appeared online at Politic365.com.
Barack Obama Approval Rating Among Hispanics Drops: What Does It Mean?
Earlier this week there was a piece over at Politico about Obama’s poll numbers with Hispanics.
Surprise: he’s not doing too well! His approval rating is in the 40’s! The extended recession had made Latinos more cynical!
None of this was news and despite the fact that a couple of other political news outlets ran with the Lake Research story on Latinos I refused to bite.
Why?
Shouldn’t diminishing excitement from Latino voters be the hottest story on the political presses a year out from what is likely going to be an incredibly tough election? No, it shouldn’t and last night’s Republican debate is the main reason why.
All polls are not created equal and polling about the president always has to be viewed in context. Meaning, it really doesn’t matter that much if his approval ratings amongst Latinos drops unless there is an equal shift in support in favor of the Republican Party – or, more specifically, a Republican candidate.
When you look at last night’s GOP debate on National Security no Democrat should be all that concerned about where the Latino vote will go. A significant portion of the debate was focused on immigration as a national security issue. That in and of itself is one of the reasons why the GOP continues to get the side-eye from Latinos.
Most Democrats and Independents consider immigration to be a domestic policy or an economics issues, and when Mexican immigrants coming into the U.S. is linked with the notion of threat, which is inherent when it’s mentioned in the context of national security, it brings forth a whole bunch of other racial and social bugaboos that make Latino voters nervous. Consider this: The Biggest story from last night’s debate was Newt suggesting that dragging every single illegal back to Mexico might not be the wisest thing for the party to do. Rick Perry got gutted for saying something similar a few months back, and tongues are wagging today as to whether Gingrich will face any blowback for his stance.
This is the inherent GOP problem with Latino voters. When there are serious political consequences for suggesting that splitting up families that have been living in America for 20 years is not a good idea, your primary constituency and your general election constituency clearly do not see eye to eye. So, bring on more bad polling for Obama, it may eventually cut into the turnout levels for him in crucial swing states but when it comes to actual Latinos going to the polls to support him, the GOP doesn’t seem to have much to offer just yet.
This article originally appeared online at Politic365.com.
