Tomorrow the new unemployment numbers are going to be released. Economic insiders predict that while the number of jobless claims have gone down – with over 100K jobs added, unemployment will stay at a painful 9.1%.
The stagnation of the current unemployment numbers are not baffling when you consider that state level government cuts mixed with layoffs are still happening despite upticks in some service sectors prior to the holiday season. However, what is most compelling about this new report is the redefinition of predictions about unemployment and jobless claims heading into the next year. The Fed is predicting about 8.6% unemployment throughout 2012 which is higher than their initial rosy prediction of 7.8% unemployment from just a couple of months ago (One wonders if they include possible disruptions from the Super Committee being unable to find a compromise). In the real world this is bad news because it means that the vast majority Americans will still be in this economic muck for another year, but in the world of campaign politics this is shockingly good news for Democrats. If Obama manages to get a steady drop in unemployment for consecutive months, and into the mid 8’s he’s probably going to get re-elected. Mitt Romney better hope that Super Committee scuttles any plan for recovery or his chances might be getting pretty slim.
This article originally appeared at Politic365.com.